Ski Touring and Splitboarding in Himalayas

Himalayan Ski Touring — Planning Grade Outlook Western Himalaya Medium-Range Signal (Jan 03 → Feb 07, 2026) Focus: J&K • Ladakh • Himachal (WHR) Issued: 03 Jan 2026 Medium-range = probability & pattern, not “exact totals” 1) Current Baseline — What We’re Entering January With The Western Himalayan Region is starting January with a winter pattern that has been more cold / dry / intermittent than “base-building.” IMD’s extended-range bulletin notes dense-to-very-dense fog episodes across north India late December (including J&K and Himachal pockets) and sub-seasonal cold signals continuing into early January. ( IMD ERF bulletin ) Key practical point: if your early-season snowpack is thin or discontinuous, then the next meaningful snowfall tends to land on a messy ...

Himalayan Ski Touring Climatic Deep Dive — Teleconnections & “Why the Pattern Looks Like This” Current-state read (as of 03 Jan 2026 ) for the big switches: ENSO , IOD , AO/NAO , and the Polar Vortex pathway — with practical implications for snow patterns in North America / Alps / Japan / Himalaya . Issued: 03 Jan 2026 Planning-grade (not deterministic) Focus: signal → consequences Quick Index Dashboard — Current Status (What’s “On” Right Now) ENSO (El Niño / La Niña) — Weak La Niña, trending neutral Current state: NOAA CPC’s latest ENSO diagnostic discussion (issued 11 Dec 2025 ) calls La Niña favored to continue for the next month or two , with the most likely outcome a transition to ENSO-neutral in Jan–Mar 2026 (CPC probability guidance)....

Himalayan Ski Touring Global Snow + Avalanche Outlook — 03 Jan 2026 Planning-grade global scan for ski touring + snowpack structure — observed last 7 days + forecast next 7 days. North America (US + Canada) Alps (France / Switzerland / Austria / Italy) Japan (Hokkaido + Honshu) Himalaya (India–Nepal–Pakistan) Issued: 03 Jan 2026 Pattern Snapshot — What’s Driving This Week North America: Active Pacific jet aimed at the West with a weekend Atmospheric River signal into California (heavy rain low + heavy mountain snow high). Meanwhile, the broader Day 3–7 setup keeps the West “storm-capable,” while details become track-sensitive after midweek. (Forecast backbone from NOAA WPC and regional NWS discussions.) Japan: Classic winter-monsoon mechanics ...

Himalayan Ski Touring India — January Signal → Early February Implications Issued: 23 Dec (planning-grade) Not a “how-to” — just signal & consequence Current State — Western Himalaya Baseline (Late Dec) Freezing level is barely scraping 3000 m. At 5000 m, snow depth is roughly 30 cm (a foot) — thin, discontinuous, cosmetic. At 4000 m, it’s a few inches, mostly blown around, mostly gone by noon sun. At 3500 m, it’s effectively zero. This is not a delayed winter. This is a non-winter so far. We’re entering the heart of winter without a real base in many zones.  The practical outcome: coverage is altitude-limited , continuity is poor, and anything that arrives in January is likely landing on a mix of bare ground / crust / thin faceted snow rather than a mature, supportive base. This matters beca...

Issued: 21 December 2025 (covering the next ~7 days) 1) North America — USA Pacific Northwest & Washington/Oregon Cascades — “AR conveyor belt + high elevation snow” Observed (last week) Multiple rounds of strong wind and precipitation in the coastal ranges and Cascades—classic “wet everywhere, snow in the upper mountain” pattern. Wind has been a major story: widespread transport at middle/upper elevations → rapid drift formation. Forecast (next ~7 days) Pacific jet remains active with additional moisture surges. Expect continued loading at elevation with snow levels fluctuating (snow-to-rain line will be the whole game). When colder air is in place: moderate to heavy mountain snowfall possible—especially favored on the Olympics and WA Cascades during stronger pulses. Avalanche scenario Primary problems: wind slabs (stiff, reactive) at mid/upper elevations; storm slabs where new snow stacks quickly. Key terrain: lee features near ridgelines, c...

Whether western disturbances reach South Asia or die upstream depends less on how strong they are at birth and more on what happens to them inside the jet stream. One of the most important failure modes is jet bifurcation . What is a continuous jet? A continuous jet is a relatively unbroken band of strong westerly winds at upper levels (roughly 200–300 hPa ) extending across regions. In a continuous jet: momentum is efficiently transferred downstream upper-level troughs remain dynamically connected storms stay embedded in the larger flow systems can travel long distances without decaying For western disturbances, a continuous jet allows systems generated over Europe or the Mediterranean to remain organized as they move eastward toward West and South Asia. What is jet bifurcation? Jet bifurcation occurs when the upper-level flow splits into two or more branches , usually a northern and a southern branch. This typically happens due ...

Western disturbances form when the large-scale flow over the North Atlantic–Europe sector becomes unstable enough to generate and sustain mid-latitude cyclones, and when those cyclones are embedded in a flow that allows them to travel eastward. Western disturbances form more frequently when: cold air is allowed to intrude south into Europe upper-level trough activity is persistent and well-placed the jet pattern supports downstream propagation Which NAO setups favour WD formation? The most favourable setups for frequent western disturbance generation are often neutral to moderately negative NAO phases (not always the most extreme negative values). In these setups, you commonly see: a weaker North Atlantic pressure gradient, which tends to make the flow wavier more frequent southward cold intrusions into Europe sharper temperature gradients over southern Europe and the Mediterranean more active baroclinic instability (the core engine for mid-latitude ...

Purpose: A field-usable formation + identification + forecasting playbook for (1) near-surface facets (NSF) and (2) facets that form on/under/within a thin, laminar crust (sun crust, wind skin, rain crust, melt-freeze, freezing drizzle). The Ingredients A. For Near-Surface Faceting (NSF) Cold, clear nights → strong radiative cooling at the snow surface. Low wind (or sheltered micro-terrain) → prevents mixing/warming of the surface. Thin snow cover / shallow new snow → steep temperature gradient in the top few cm. Time : even 1–3 nights can start it; 3–10 days can make it significant. Physics shortcut: a strong temperature gradient in the top 1–5 cm drives vapour transport upward, growing angular grains fast. B. For Faceting Around / Within a Laminar Crust A thin, dense, smooth crust (sun crust, rain crust, melt-freeze, wind-skin, freezing drizzle crust). Then cold, clear weather (or cold air over warmer s...